Trade Center: Deadline Recaps part 1

The Trade: The Cleveland Indians trade SP Cliff Lee and OF Ben Francisco to the Phillidelphia Phillies for SP Jason Knapp (Low-A), SP Carlos Carrasco (AAA), SS Jason Donald (AAA), C Lou Marson (AAA).

Analysis: The Phillies made out like bandits in this deal. They filled their two biggest needs an established starting pitcher and a right-handed bat off the bench. And they did so without giving up any of their Major League talent (J.A. Happ) or their top 3 prospects (Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, Dominic Brown). Given the cost in terms of prospects and money compared to adding Halladay, the Phillies got a steal here. They gave up 4 quality prospects, but likely no allstars. I think the Indians sold low here. Lee maybe isn't as elite as Halladay, but right now his value should have been higher than this.

The Trade: The Pittsburgh Pirates trade 2B Freddy Sanchez to the San Fransisco Giants for SP Tim Alderson (AA).

Analysis: The Pirates who have been the most active team on the the 'Hot Stove' this year, made another quality pick-up here by flipping Sanchez for Alderson. Traditionally I don't favor trading an established Major League ballplayer for a single prospect. If that prospect fails then you got nothing, but this is the rare case where its worth the risk. Alderson is a top young pitching prospect, who has already reached AA at the age of 20. He's struggled some recently, but given his age and potential there is a good chance he can get back on the fast track to the Majors. Sanchez does represent an offensive and defensive upgrade at 2nd for the Giants, but they did pay a pretty high price.

The Trade: The Baltimore Orioles traded RP George Sherrill to the Los Angeles Dodgers for 3B Josh Bell (AA) and SP Steve Johnson (AA)

Analysis: This was a pretty fair trade for both sides. The Dodgers got a quality reliever who is lights out against lefties. He is under team control for another two years, and is a major addition for the Dodgers' playoff run. The Orioles get two solid prospects in return for their closer. Bell is the key to this deal for Baltimore. He is legit 3B prospect that offers major offensive upside. While he doesn't project to have the offensive chops of Longoria or the defensive ability of Zimmerman, but he should be a quality starter for years to come. Johnson doesn't have the upside of Bell, but has succeeded thus far in the minors. If he keeps developing he could be a decent back end of the rotation starter. Overall I would have liked to see the O's grab another prospect in the deal, but overall it was an even trade.

Trade Center: Snell and Wilson to the Mariners

The Deal: The Pirates trade SS Jack Wilson, SP Ian Snell and cash to the Mariners for C/1B Jeff Clement (AAA), INF Ronny Cedeno, and RHP's Nathan Adcock (High-A), Brett Lorin (Low-A), Aaron Pribanic (Low-A).

Pittsburgh: The Pirates did end up having to pay for just about all of Wilson and Snell's deals this year, but they cleared over $12 million off the books for next season. The Pirates didn't acquire any stars in this deal, but did receive a lot of promising upside. Clement has been a highly touted prospect for years, though injuries and ineffectiveness have forced him from being an everyday catcher so far. Cedeno is a solid cheap utility player that can fill in for Wilson until a quality starter can be found. All three of the starters the Pirates received have some upside. None project to be front line starters, but they could fill out a rotation or move to the bullpen. Adcock is the most intriguing in my mind, and should advance quickly behind his major league curve ball.

Seattle: The Mariners made this trade more for next season than this year, in my opinion. Seattle has an outside shot of making a stretch run this year, but could be in a solid position in 2010. Wilson gives them perhaps the best defensive SS in baseball. And while his bat has been below average it has been an upgrade to the Mariners shortstops this season. Snell is the key to this deal for Seattle. If he pitches like he has this year for the Pirates, then the Mariners got took in this deal big time. If he starts pitching like he has in the past and finally lives up to his potential, then the Mariners got a young quality starter on the cheap. If Snell does turn it around he could have both of his club options picked up, making him a Mariner through 2012.

Winner: The Pirates are the winner here regardless of the performance of the players acquired in this deal. Wilson is a great leader and a great defensive player, but $8.5 million was a lot for a last place team to pay for a guy, who can't hit. Snell was once considered part of Pittsburgh's future, but he 'talked' (and played) his way out of the Steel City. It was pretty clear that his days in Pittsburgh were numbered, so whatever talent you get for him is a win. The $12 million the Pirates save is significant. Look for them to use that money to keep signing draft picks and international players. As for the Mariners they did acquire to Major League pieces, but right now there are more questions than answers surrounding them. Will Wilson's batting numbers go even further down in a better pitchers park and tougher league? Can Snell focus on pitching and reach his upside? Will Snell struggle against the better A.L. hitters? If the answers to those questions are; NO, YES, NO, then the Mariners may come out of this deal winners as well.

Trade Market: Sellers N.L.

Washington Nationals: The Nationals should be in complete rebuilding mode at this point. They are 27 games back in the N.L. East, and have 10 fewer wins than any other team in baseball. Washington needs to get younger and more talented around the diamond. Outside of Ryan Zimmerman (3B), the Nationals don't have a position player that has a long term future with the club. They have some interesting names, (Dukes, Flores, Morgan, A. Gonzalez) but none of them are sure things. Washington does have some young talent in the pitching rotation to build around.

Top trade targets: Nick Johnson (1B), Joe Biemel (RP), Christian Guzman (SS), Josh Willingham (OF), Adam Dunn (1B/OF)

Analysis: Johnson and Biemel are the most likely to be dealt, because both are impending free agents. Johnson has rebuilt his trade value and should bring back at least one quality prospect. Biemel could bring back a solid prospect as well. Neither player will bring back a stud prospect, but any influx of talent is a bonus for the Nationals. Guzman is signed for an additional year so he could bring back a couple of solid prospects (though the Nats will probably have to kick in some money). I think only one of Dunn/Willingham will be moved this trade deadline. Moving both would upset the fan base too much, as well as hurt an offense that doesn't have replacements for them. I would move Willingham since given his affordable contract more teams will likely be interested. Willingham has also increased his trade value with his production this season, making now a good time to sell high on him. Washington should be able to get a couple of good prospects or bullpen arms in return for Willingham.

Potential Willingham and Guzman deals should have the greatest impact, but all of these players should be moved by August 1st. By moving all of them the Nationals can clear some redundant players, free up payroll and increase the talent and depth of their minor league system.

Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates have already started their rebuilding project this year by trading away their opening day CF (Nate McLouth), LF (Nyjer Morgan), and 1B (Adam LaRoche). Also they have moved their top bat off the bench (Eric Hinske) and one of their relievers (Sean Burnett). In return Pittsburgh has gotten younger, and a number of high upside players. They have also saved millions off their payroll, that can now be used to sign draft picks and international free agents.

Top trade targets: Freddy Sanchez (2B), Jack Wilson (SS), John Grabow (RP), Matt Capps (RP), Zach Duke (SP), Paul Maholm (SP)

Analysis: Sanchez and Wilson are one of the best double play tandems in baseball, and they will likely be playing on different teams come August. Sanchez should bring back a pretty good haul for the Bucs. Wilson on the other hand has struggled at the plate reducing his trade value. Grabow is an impending FA, and won't bring back much in return. Capps could bring back a solid package of two good prospects. His contract, age and potential make him a pretty good commodity on the market, but his performance this year has been shaky. I also wouldn't be surprised to see the Pirates move one of their young starters, either Duke or Maholm. I think Duke is more likely to be moved, but the Pirates should gauge the value of each. Duke should bring a pretty good return back since he's under control through 2011. The Pirates are heading in the right direction with the moves they've made so far. They need to keep rebuilding and focusing on building a winning foundation. It might not show in this year's standings, but the future is bright in Pittsburgh.

Other teams looking to sell:

San Diego Padres: The Padres have tried to move Jake Peavey already this season, but with him on the D.L. they will have to wait to the off season to deal their ace. Right now they are saying they won't move Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell their two all-star players (though I think they should). I think Kevin Correia (SP) and Kevin Kouzmanoff (3B) are players that the Padres will move by the deadline. Each will bring back a solid return, but nothing near what the Friars would get if they put Gonzalez or Bell on the market.

Arizona Diamondbacks: The D-Backs have already made a couple of trades so far (T. Pena and Felipe Lopez) and will likely make a few more small deals. They have a young nucleus to build around so they won't make any blockbuster deals. I think Chad Qualls (RP) and Doug Davis (SP) are the most likely to be dealt.

Houston Astros: The Astros are only two games out in the N.L. Central, but should favor selling as opposed to buying. The Astros are an older team with little depth, that makes me think they won't be able to win the division or grab the wild card this season. They also have the worst minor league system in baseball, and can't afford the talent to acquire the players they need for a playoff run. The Astros should look to move impending free agents Jose Valverde, Ivan Rodriguez and even Miguel Tejada. Houston needs to add some talent in the minor league system this deadline.

Trade Center: MLB

A couple of modest trades have been made over the last few days. Here is a quick look at them.

The Deal: The St. Louis Cardinals acquire UTL Mark DeRosa from the Cleveland Indians for RP Chris Perez and a Player To Be Named Later (PTBNL).

Indians: In the off season the Indians acquired DeRosa from the Chicago Cubs for three minor leaguers, in the hopes that he could help propel the Indians to the playoffs. They didn't give up any top prospects so it was a good deal for Cleveland. Unfortunately the Indians have the worst record in the A.L., and are 12 games out of the Central division. Now was a good time for the Indians to start selling, and rebuilding for next year. By trading DeRosa, Cleveland frees up over $2.75 million from their payroll, and acquires a top reliever prospect in Perez. Though PTBNL's are usually marginal prospects, it seems like there are a few quality guys that could end up coming back to the Indians.

Cardinals: St. Louis is battling for the N.L. Central division, that is truly up for grabs. Only 6 games separate the top and bottom of the six team division. The Cardinals need another hitter in the line-up to go along with Albert Pujols. DeRosa, who can play all over the diamond, will slide in at third base for the injured Troy Glaus. DeRosa isn't an impact bat, but he does everything well in addition to being a good club house guy.

Winner: Its hard to declare a winner until we know who the PTBNL is. Until then this looks like a good deal for both sides. The Cards add a good player, who isn't a drag on the payroll. The Indians receive one good prospect, likely another solid one, and financial relief.

The Deal: The New York Yankees acquire UTL Eric Hinske from the Pittsburgh Pirates for OF/C Eric Fryer (High-A) and RP Casey Erickson (Low-A).

Pirates: For Pittsburgh they traded away a bench player, for some salary relief, a couple of fringe prospects, and a roster spot. Overall that is not a bad deal. The Pirates had to kick in part of Hinske's salary, but it sounds like they were able to save over $400K in the deal. That money can be used to sign draft picks or international players. Neither Fryer or Erickson are top prospects, but both offer organizational depth and a little upside. The Pirates also free up a roster spot to promote 1B/OF Garret Jones. Though Jones isn't a top prospect, he has some big time power, and should be given a chance to stick with the big league club.

Yankees: New York has needed a UTL player all season. Hinske can back up first, third and both corner outfield spots. Given Alex Rodriguez's injury concerns having a quality back-up is a must for the Yankees. The Yankees didn't give up any major prospects in the deal, and got a solid big leaguer in return. Hinske won't be the answer if A-Rod is out for a significant time, but he should fill in nicely for spot duty.

Winner: Both teams won here as they satisfied their biggest goals. The Yankees filled a glaring hole on their bench, without selling the farm or adding a bloated contract. And the Pirates moved a redundant player for some financial relief and a little upside.

Quick Thoughts on the MLB Draft

I'll do a deeper insight into the draft later, but I wanted to highlight the approach of the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates had the fourth overall pick, and had an additional compensation pick (for not signing a pick last year) before the 2nd round. The Pirates with their top pick, avoided more high profile talents and choose Catcher Tony Sanchez from Boston College. Sanchez is expected to sign for around $2.5 million dollars, which is at less than half of what most players wanted at that spot. The Pirates decided to spend their money throughout the draft and not on a single player.

I think the Pittsburgh Pirates made a bold and brilliant move with this draft. They were widely criticized for their selection of Sanchez, but in the end I think it is a good move. No Sanchez wasn't a top-5, 10 or even 20 talent, but he is a good player. Position prospects were rare in this draft, and while that isn't reason enough to overdraft someone it should be considered. Furthermore, Sanchez is a collegiate player who plays a premium position. His defense is major league ready (which can be hard to teach), and he should be in the majors within 2-3 years. Though he may never be an offensive catcher in the mold of Joe Mauer, if he can just be an average hitter the Pirates got quality value here.

If the Pirates had taken the 'best player available' (BPA), they would have chosen from one of 5 top H.S. pitchers. All of those pitchers have immense talent, but they also have plenty of risk. For one thing, they have plenty of leverage in negotiations, given their college commitments. Because of that they have inflated price tags, anywhere between $5-7 million (Gerritt Cole last year didn't even sign with the Yankees despite the fact they were willing to meet his initial price). On top of that, H.S. players take longer to develop, the Pirates wouldn't see them in the majors for 3-5 years (if they make it at all). Finally, H.S. arms are much harder to project than college arms. H.S. pitchers aren't used as much in a given year, so there can be a greater risk of injury. In my opinion, that is just way to much risk to invest such a large signing bonus. Instead the Pirates will look toward spreading out that bonus money over a number of players. During the 2nd and 3rd days of the draft the Pirates took a number of high upside players, who will command over slot bonuses. While they won't sign all these guys, I'd expect a fair number of them joining Pittsburgh's system.

The Pirates are a rebuilding franchise (have been for nearly 20 years now), and have little help on the way in the minors. This draft class represents a major influx of talent (depending on who they sign). The way I look at it is there weren't any surefire superstars after the top two picks (Strasburg and Ackley), so quantity becomes more important than quality. Time will tell if the Pirates made the right decision but I like the strategy.

Trade Center: MLB

The Deal: The Pittsburgh Pirates send OF Nate McLouth to the Atlanta Braves for CF Gorkys Hernandez (AA), LHP Jeff Locke (High-A), RHP Charlie Morton (AAA).

Braves: Entering June, the Atlanta Braves ranked in the bottom half of the league in every major hitting category. The main reason for the lack of offense in the Atlanta line-up has been the anemic performances by their outfielders. In over 550 AB's, Atlanta's top FOUR outfielders only managed to hit 10 home runs. Nate McLouth comes to the Braves with nine in 168 AB's. None of the Braves three starters had an OPS north of .700, which is unheard of in today's game. McLouth's OPS stands at .819 and was .853 last season when he was an All-Star. Another area where McLouth can help the Braves out is their running game. McLouth has been a perfect 7 for 7 in SB attempts, and is 64 of 69 for his career. McLouth was attractive to Atlanta because he's only 27 years old and is signed for the next three seasons. The Braves did pay a heavy price for  three and a half years of McLouth. They parted with two of their top ten prospects according to Baseball America (subscription required to read the full scouting reports), in Hernandez and Locke. Atlanta also had to give up 25 year old pitcher Charlie Morton, who has gone 12-4 with an ERA under 2.50 over the past two seasons in AAA.

Pirates: Even though it seems that the Pirates traded away a young budding star for no immediate help to their major league team, I think Pittsburgh made the right move here. On the surface McLouth is a reigning All-Star and Gold Glover, but in reality he isn't too likely to attain those accolades again. McLouth's defense has been grossly overrated. He has a nice arm and decent range but his instincts are lacking. Most advanced defensive metrics rated him as a below average to very poor defensive center fielder. While McLouth is a good offensive center fielder, he's unlikely to enter the All-Star break with the numbers he had last season. McLouth was batting .281 with a .899 OPS and 19 home runs when he played in the midsummer classic. Another reason why McLouth was traded, was the emergence of Pittsburgh's top center field prospect Andrew McCutchen. McCutchen, who was the Pirates 1st round pick in 2005, was pushing for a promotion with his performance in AAA. With him on the way, McLouth would have needed to move to a corner outfield spot. While McLouth could have made the move to the corner, his .819 OPS isn't nearly as impressive at that position. Pretty much every team (except the Braves) has at least one corner outfielder with an .800+ OPS. The Pirates did a good job of selling high on McLouth. They got three quality young players in return. Hernandez has a bright future in CF and may one day push McCutchen to a corner spot. Locke has had some minor league struggles but at 21 years old has a bright future. Morton is a great third piece in this deal. He doesn't have the immense upside of the previous two, but he's major league ready. Morton at the very least could be a quality late inning bullpen arm, but will likely end up as a back of the rotation starter.

Winner: Braves are the immediate winner, but I think the Pirates get the long term benefit here. They traded a redundant player at the peak of his value for quantity and quality prospects. Its hard to argue with that. In addition the money that they save will go towards filling holes at positions of need, and acquiring more amateur talent.