Saturday, April 4, 2009

Final Four

Final Four Predictions:

Here are my quick thoughts on today's Final Four match-ups.

I think Connecticut will outlast the home town Michigan State Spartans. Though I think the Spartans do have an advantage with the crowd likely in their favor I just don't think they match-up well with the Huskies. The Huskies point guard A.J. Price I think is primed for a big game. He often gets overlooked but I think he will be tough for Michigan State to guard. Center Hasheem Thabeet presents a big problem for the Spartans as well. Michigan State doesn't have the size inside to compete with him and will need to get him in foul trouble to have any hope of winning the battle in the paint.

As for the late game I think while Villanova has had a great tournament run, their bubble will burst at the hands of North Carolina. The Tar Heels are just too deep and strong for the Wildcats. Villanova will need more magic from point guard Scottie Reynolds to beat the Tar Heels. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, UNC has an answer for Reynolds in their own point guard Ty Lawson. To me Lawson has been the key to North Carolina's success all tournament. I think he is so talented and always raises his game to the level of his competition. I'd look for him to have a big game to overcome Villanova.

Hope everyone enjoys the tournament tonight, it should be a couple of quality basketball games.

AL East Preview: Boston Red Sox

Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 1st place finish

Strengths: Boston may have the deepest pitching staff in all of baseball. Both their starting rotation and their bullpen are loaded with talented young arms. Starting pitchers Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Daiskuke Matsuzaka form a dominate top of the rotation. Closer Jonathan Papelbon has three straight years of 35 or more saves. The talent in Boston's staff is almost equaled by the quality of their lineup. Reigning AL MVP Dustin Pedroia sets the tempo for Boston's lineup. Behind Pedroia sits the meat of the Red Sox order, designated hitter David Ortiz, first baseman Kevin Youkilis, left fielder Jason Bay and right fielder J.D. Drew. All four players are high OPS (on base+ slugging percentage) guys with 20-30 home run power.

Weaknesses: Despite having a great overall lineup the Red Sox are getting below league average production from their catcher and shortstop positions. Jason Varitek has been an integral part of the Red Sox organisation for over 10 years now, but should no longer be considered an everyday catcher. This is a position that Boston will likely look to upgrade during the season. Shortstop is another problem spot for Boston. Last year Julio Lugo and rookie Jed Lowrie split time at the position and combined for a subpar performance. Lowrie showed promise though and will need to continue to improve as the Red Sox look to reclaim the AL East. Injuries are another area of concern for the Red Sox. Ortiz, Drew, and third baseman Mike Lowell all missed significant time last season due to injury. Boston will need a healthier lineup as they battle through their tough AL East schedule.

Farm Aid: While no longer considered rookies young players such as Lowrie, and pitchers Clay Buchholz and Justin Masterson figure to play a big role for Boston in 2009. Lowrie will be the starting shortstop and will hopefully bring much needed production to the position. Masterson will be Papelbon's setup man and should give Boston the best 8th-9th inning combination in the AL. Buchholz has the talent to join Boston's rotation and will be the first arm called upon when an injury occurs. The biggest advantage of Boston's talented minor league system is their ability to make a trade to improve the team for a stretch run.

Outlook: Given the Red Sox depth and talent they should be looking at a division title and are the early favorite to win the World Series.

Friday, April 3, 2009

Giants Release Burress

The New York Giants cut ties today with their star receiver Plaxico Burress. Burress was New York's prize free agent signing back in 2005 and caught the winning touchdown in Super Bowl XLII. Burress missed the last six games of the 2008 shooting due to being injured in a self-inflicted shooting accident. As a result of the incident Burress faces possible jail time on illegal gun charges and a likely suspension by the league. Given the uncertain status of their receiver it makes sense for the Giants to cut him. The Giants need to move past the negative media attention that has surrounded the case and focus on players they know will be available to them next season. The problem for the team is how do they replace Burress on the field.

Burress is a rare combination of size and speed, that creates match-up problems for opposing defenses. His absence during the end of the regular season and playoffs was noticeable. The Giants were 10-1 before Burress incident (Burress did miss one of the games due to injury) but just 2-4 without him, including a 23-11 home playoff loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. New York will need to find a way to replace Burress. With free agency over a month old the Giants won't find that replacement on the open market. Big name receivers like T.J. Houshmanzadeh, Terrell Owens and Laveranues Coles have already signed with other teams. The Giants also may struggle to find a replacement in the draft. The Giants pick 29th overall and many of the big tall receivers, such as Micheal Crabtree, Hakeem Nicks and Darrius Heyward-Bey, will likely be long gone by the time New York is on the clock. My guess is the Giants will fill their need for a big play maker through a trade. Three names to watch Braylon Edwards (Browns), Anquan Boldin (Cardinals), and Chad Johnson (Bengals) all would fit the Giants need and to some degree are available. Any one of those players will cost at the very least the Giants first round pick (or at least that value range) with Boldin requiring the biggest package. At the same time Boldin makes the most sense for New York. No one questions Boldin's on the field abilities unlike some do with Edwards. Also while questions remain about Boldin's attitude they are minor and wouldn't be near the distraction that Johnson can be. All three come with question marks and high price tags but will give Eli Manning the big target that he sorely needs. I wouldn't necessarily expect a move to be made right away but look for a trade to happen in the days leading up to the draft.

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Trade Center: NFL

The Deal: The Denver Broncos send quarterback Jay Cutler and a 5th round pick to the Chicago Bears for quarterback Kyle Orton, the 18th overall pick in April's draft, a third round pick and Chicago's first round pick in 2010.

Broncos: Even with Cutler trying to force his way out of Denver, the Broncos were able to get a kings ransom for their young Pro Bowl quarterback. Denver had no choice but to move Cutler and end the media circus that has followed the team since the potential 3-way trade involving Matt Cassel became public last month. In return the Broncos received a serviceable quarterback in Kyle Orton. Though he'll never be a star and doesn't have the arm or ceiling of Cutler, Orton should be a capable replacement. Orton never had the quality receivers that Cutler had in Denver and was always part of a run-oriented offense. In Orton the Broncos have a solid starter that could have a breakout similar to Cassel's under coach Josh McDaniels. In addition to Orton the Broncos received 3 quality draft picks and will now have plenty of ammunition to trade up in the draft to select one of the top quarterbacks if they desire. If not they will be able to add three top players over the next two years to help in the Broncos playoff pursuit. The two first round picks are great value for Cutler and will allow Denver to get impact players.

Bears: Chicago last season finished 21st in the league in passing and needed to upgrade their offense. Cutler should immediately help the Bears passing attack and gives their team a player they can build their offense around. Quarterback has been a bit of a revolving door for the Bears for years, they haven't had one quarterback lead the team in passing for three or more consecutive years since, Jim Harbaugh did it in the early 90's. While Cutler will end that trend the Bears paid a hefty price to do so. Two first round picks and a third are a high price to pay to upgrade from Orton to Cutler. The Bears might be a playoff contender in the weak NFC North but will likely miss those draft picks down the road. Chicago doesn't have the talented receiving corps that Cutler had in Denver so they might not see their passing attack improve that much.

Winner: I think the Broncos are a big winner here. Yes Cutler is a very good quarterback but I think he's far from the "franchise quarterback" that everyone makes him out to be. There are 8-10 quarterbacks in the league that I'd rather have leading my team than Jay Cutler. Yes he's been to a Pro Bowl, but he hasn't led his team to the playoffs yet, even in the woeful AFC West. The Bears gave up too much for Cutler, who needs to show he's more than just a big arm quarterback. I think the Broncos with the additional picks can add the talent to surround Orton for a playoff run this season.

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

NL East Preview: Washington Nationals

Prediction: Washington Nationals: 5th place finish

Strengths: The Nationals have the potential to have a pretty good line-up. First baseman Nick Johnson, and outfielders Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham are all middle of the order hitters that have power and on-base ability. These veteran players are supplemented by the Nationals talented young core, led by third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, and outfielders Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes. Zimmerman, already one of the best defensive third baseman in the league, has the ability to be an offensive force as well and should hit between 25-30 home runs with a high average. Washington also has a number of talented young arms with a lot of upside.

Weaknesses: The Nationals biggest weakness is their inability to stay healthy. Johnson should be their best offensive player but since he has missed a year and a half of the last two seasons isn't being counted on as a big run producer. Last season every starter but shortstop Christian Guzman spent time on the disabled list, and Guzman still missed 24 games throughout the season. Another area of concern is the fact that the Nationals have four starting caliber outfielders for only three positions. This could lead to unrest in the locker room and could necessitate a trade. Defense was a major problem for the Nationals last season as only Zimmerman and Johnson are considered good defensively. Though the Nats have a number of talented young arms in the rotation, none of them are proven as a sure thing. Washington's bullpen is a major red flag even after the free agent addition of Joe Biemel.

Farm Aid: Two of the Nationals young starters will be a pair of 22 year old rookies, right handers Shairon Martis and Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann is top young pitcher and could in all likelihood be the Nationals ace this season. Martis doesn't have as big an upside as Zimmermann but can still be a very solid starter. Unfortunately beyond those two starters the Nationals don't have much else in the way of help from the farm.

Outlook: Given the deficiencies on defense and in the bullpen, along with the injury concerns and an unproven rotation the Nationals will likely spend another year in the cellar of the NL East.

NL East Preview: Atlanta Braves

Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 4th place finish

Strengths: Atlanta rebuilt their rotation in the off season with free agent signings Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami (Japan) and a trade for Javier Vasquez. These additions combined with rookie sensation Jair Jurrjens should give the Braves one of the better rotations in the National League. Third baseman Chipper Jones and catcher Brian McCann are a formidable pair in the middle of the Braves batting order.

Weaknesses: While the Braves have a solid starting line-up they lack the offensive firepower of the rest of the NL East. Outside of Jones and McCann, there aren't any true offensive weapons. The Braves outfield production is especially bad, their three projected starters combined for just 19 home runs last season. The Braves sorely need more lumber in their line-up.

Farm Aid: The Braves have a very good minor league system and have the pieces to acquire another bat or two during the season. Atlanta will also likely have two rookies make a significant impact this season. Starting pitcher Tommy Hanson is one of the best pitchers in the minors and should be in the Braves rotation by mid-season. Center fielder Jordan Schafer will also likely make the jump to the big leagues early in the season. His bat should provide a much needed boost to the Braves anemic outfield production.

Outlook: Even with an improved rotation the Braves will struggle to finish better than 4th in the East without improving their offense.

NL East Preview: Florida Marlins

Prediction: Florida Marlins: 3rd place finish

Strengths: The three returning starters of the Marlins infield, first baseman Jorge Cantu, shortstop Hanley Ramirez and second baseman Dan Uggla, combined for 94 home runs last season. They represent the core of a very talented line-up top to bottom. Ramirez is the face fo the franchise and is among baseball's elite hitters. While the Marlins lack a true "Ace" their rotation is loaded with talented young arms. Florida's farm system may be their biggest strength. Their minor league teams are stacked with top prospects at every position.

Weaknesses: While the Marlins offense is first rate their defense leaves much to be desired. Given their young rotation their defensive woes are even more pronounced and is a problem that Florida needs to address. The Marlins biggest weakness is their ownership's unwillingness to spend money to improve their team. Florida has had the lowest payroll in baseball over the last three season and has been a complete non-factor in free agency. If the Marlins would add just 2-3 solid players they would be a serious contender in the NL.

Farm Aid: The Marlins have a lot of help on the way from the minors, but their brightest star may be center fielder Cameron Maybin. Maybin, who is just 22 years old, should patrol center field for years to come for the Fish and be a big part of Florida's offense. Emilio Bonifacio, who was acquired in a trade with the Washington Nationals this offseason, won the starting job at third base in spring training. Though a second baseman by nature, Bonifacio should add another stolen base threat to the Marlins athletic line-up.

Outlook: The Marlins have a lot of talent but probably lack the experience to compete with the Mets and Phillies for the NL East title. Given their depth in the minors don't be surprised to see the Marlins trade off some of their young starters for additional prospects.

NL East Preview: Philadelphia Phillies

Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 2nd place finish

Strengths: The Phillies line-up may be the best in the National League. They are led by a pair of former MVP winners, first baseman Ryan Howard and shortstop Jimmy Rollins. Second baseman Chase Utley is a perennial all-star and probably the best second baseman in the league. Though not as heralded as the three big stars, left fielder Raul Ibanez and center fielder Shane Victorino are top offensive producers as well. The top four starters in the Phillies rotation are all pretty good, with 25 year old Cole Hamels the ace of the group. The 8th and 9th innings are pretty set for the Phillies as well, with Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge being lights out in close situations.

Weaknesses: Philadelphia is set up the middle defensively with Rollins, Utley and Victorino but is pretty below average across the rest of the diamond. The Phillies also need consistent offensive production out of their third base and catcher positions in their line-up. The 5th starter spot is another weak area for the Phillies and will likely need to be upgraded during the season.

Farm Aid: The Phillies farm system is pretty talented top to bottom and should offer some reinforcements to the big league club throughout the season. Shortstop Jason Donald, could slide over and be the Phillies answer at third base or could headline a trade package. Catcher Lou Marson should be an offensive upgrade at the position and will likely take over as a starter at some point this season. The answer to the Phillies 5th starter might be in the minors as well, in right hander Carlos Carrasco. Though he will start the year in the minors Carrasco should be in the majors by mid-season.

Outlook: The World Series champs should be in a tough fight with the Mets for the Division title. Look for Philadelphia to come up just short but to return to the playoffs with a Wild Card berth.

NL East Preview: New York Mets

Prediction: New York Mets: 1st place finish

Strengths: Shortstop Jose Reyes, third baseman David Wright and center fielder Carlos Beltran are among the best young players in the league and represent the core of the Mets line-up. Starting pitcher Johan Santana, has the stuff to be the most dominate pitcher in the majors and anchors a solid front of the Mets rotation. The Mets bullpen was a weakness going into the off season but with the additions of a pair of closers, J.J Putz and Francisco Rodriguez, should now turn into a strength of the team.

Weaknesses: While New York has a playoff caliber team, they do have some holes on their roster. Second baseman Luis Castillo and catcher Brian Schneider are below average offensively. The back of the Mets rotation is unsettled as well. Oliver Perez has struggled in Spring Training and the 5th spot is up for grabs.

Farm Aid: The Mets don't have much in terms of immediate help in their minor league system. New York does have the depth in their lower minors to make a trade or two if they need a player for a playoff run. A pair of pitchers are the best bet to help out the Mets this season. Left-hander Jonathon Niese may become their 5th starter before the year is out. Righty Bobby Parnell is likely to make the roster as a middle reliever and could be a bridge to the 8th and 9th inning guys.

Outlook: The Mets are opening a new ballpark in 2009 and should christen it with an NL East division title.

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Sweet 16 Preview: (2) Duke vs. (3) Villanova

(2) Duke Blue Devils:

Their Tournament so far: The Blue Devils won their first game over (15) Binghamton by 24 points. Duke had a balanced attack in which six players managed to get into double figures. Their second round game against (7) Texas was a bit closer, with Duke winning 74-69. Texas battled Duke all game and was within one point in the games final minute but couldn't come away with the upset. Junior guard Gerald Henderson led the Blue Devils with 24 points.

Hot Hand: Henderson has 37 points in two games and has been the catalyst for Duke. Sophomore forward Kyle Singler has added 27 points and led the Blue Devils in rebounding each game.

How they match-up with Villanova: The Blue Devils match-up well against the Wildcats of Villanova. They both play very similar style of offenses based around perimeter shooting and one big man in the middle. Villanova is a bit more physical and athletic than Duke which could give the Blue Devils some problems. Duke on the other hand play solid defense and have good shot selection.

X-Factor: Getting Gerald Henderson involved early. Henderson is the one player on Duke's roster who is as quick and strong as Villanova's starters. His inside-outside scoring ability makes him the Blue Devils top threat. Henderson presents a big match-up problem for the Wildcats. If he can get going early should be enough to send the Blue Devils to the next round.

(3) Villanova Wildcats:

Their Tournament so far: The Wildcats struggled out of the gate in their first game, going into halftime with a 10 point deficit to (15) American. They came out in the second half with a vengence and outscored American by 23. Villanova had two 25 point performances that night by senior forwards Dante Cunningham and Dwayne Anderson. In their second game against (6) UCLA the Wildcats exploded for a 89-69 win. Villanova had six players in double figures and out rebounded the Bruins by 13.

Hot Hand: Cunningham has had 43 points so far in the tourney and is a big match-up problem for opposing teams. Anderson has been a good second option for the Wildcats with a combined 35 points. He has scored double figures in both of the games despite averaging only about 8.5 points per game during the season.

How they match-up against Duke: Villanova is actually the better shooting team, despite the fact that the Blue Devils were a higher scoring team this year. The Wildcats have a better inside presence than the Blue Devils and showed that this season with their tough Big East schedule. While not the most physical team, the Wildcats front court should have the advantage against the Blue Devils. Villanova is also a more athletic team which should help them on defense and to create room for open shots.

X-Factor: Working Dante Cunningham inside against Duke's Kyle Singler. Cunningham should have the advantage against Singler and the Wildcats need to exploit that. Let Cunningham go to the basket early and put Singler in a position where he has to foul. Duke doesn't have much depth with their big men and will be in big trouble if Singler sits a portion of the game with foul trouble.

Sweet 16 Preview: (2) Memphis vs. (3) Missouri

(2) Memphis Tigers:

Their Tournament so far: The Tigers survived a potential first round upset by 15th seed Cal State Northridge. Though they won the game 81-70, Memphis was down by three with nine minutes remaining. Sophomore guard Roburt Sallie came up big off the bench for the Tigers by hitting 10 3-pointers. In the second round game against (10) Maryland, Memphis showed why they were a number 2 seed by blowing out the Terps with a 89-70 win. The Tigers had 5 players in double figures and were too quick and athletic for the Terps to handle.

Hot Hand: Roburt Sallie scored just 150 points in the 33 games leading up to the NCAA tournament but has 48 in the Tigers first two rounds. Sallie has been a good 3-point shooter all year has caught fire in the tournament with a combined 13-19 from behind the arc. Freshman guard Tyreke Evans has added 34 points for Memphis and has been disruptive on defense.

How they match-up with Missouri: Memphis match-ups well with Missouri. They are very similar teams, both like to get out in front of their opponents and score in transition. Both teams are very adept at creating turnovers and forcing bad shots. Memphis doesn't have the 3-point shooting ability to match with Missouri but does have more overall talent in their back court. Memphis also has a depth advantage over Missouri, with a more balanced offense.

X-Factor: Win the battle of the big men. Missouri's two best players are forwards and if they get hot, Missouri will advance to the Elite Eight. Memphis needs their own forwards, senior Robert Dozier and junior Shawn Taggart, to match-up and shut down the Missouri threat. Dozier and Taggart will need to control the boards as well and give their team some second shot looks.

(3) Missouri Tigers:

Their Tournament so far: Missouri had a 19 point victory over (14) Cornell in the first round. The Tigers were led by senior forward Leo Lyons who had 23 points and 10 rebounds. In the second round the Tigers had a tough match-up against (6) Marquette. The Tigers pulled out a four point victory behind clutch free throw shooting down the stretch.

Hot Hand: Lyons has paced the Tigers with 41 points between the two games. He's been strong from the free throw line hitting 11 of his 13 attempts. Senior forward DeMarre Carroll has scored in double digits in both rounds and has been the team's leader all season. Freshman guard Kim English has come off the bench to score 30 points and has gone 6-10 from beyond the 3-point line.

How they match-up with Memphis: They can't match the star quality or depth of Memphis but they can play defense and force Memphis to play their game. While both teams rely on transition basketball, Missouri plays a tighter defense and is a better shooting team. They need to not give up so many second chance points and capitalize on Memphis turnovers.

X-Factor: Shutting down the Memphis back court. Missouri has the advantage on the inside but Memphis has a big advantage with their guards. While Missouri is a better shooting team, the Memphis guards are quicker and more athletic. For Missouri to win they have to slow down Evans, Sallie and senior guard Antonio Anderson. If Missouri can neutralize the threat on the outside their inside advantage should give them the victory.

Sweet 16 Preview: (1) Pittsburgh vs. (4) Xavier

(1) Pittsburgh Panthers:

Their Tournament so far: Pittsburgh has had their fair share of struggles so far in the tournament. Though they won their first game over 16th seed East Tennessee State by 10 points, they were up by only two with under five minutes to go. The Panthers played a sloppy game committing 18 turnovers. In the second round game Pittsburgh ran into the 3-point shooting (8) Oklahoma St. Cowboys. The Cowboys scored 49 points and shot over 60% from behind the arc in the first half. The Panthers battled back and turned the game into a 3-point shootout with both team combining for 18 trey's in the first half alone. Junior forward Sam Young led Pittsburgh with 32 points and played every minute of that game.

Hot Hand: The Panthers haven't had one player dominate so far but have had good performances from their stars. Sophomore center DaJuan Blair led the Panthers in the first round game with 27 points and 16 rebounds and followed it up with a double double in the second round game. Young had a solid first round game but exploded in the second round game against the Cowboys. Young was all over the floor and Oklahoma State just didn't have an answer for him.

How they match-up with Xavier: The Panthers can't match-up with Xavier's size or depth on paper, but they should be able to on the court. Blair and Young may not be the tallest front court players in the tournament but they play like they are. All year Blair has battled and won against taller big men in the Big East. On the perimeter Xaiver has a couple 3-point shooters and the Panthers will need big games by their guards to contain them. Both teams crash the boards but the Panthers should have a slight advantage here.

X-Factor: Control the game in the paint. The Panthers should go inside early and often to Blair and Young. Both players are so athletic and strong that they will be tough for Xavier to stop without fouling. While the Musketeers have a deep bench they lose a lot of leadership and experience when their starters are in foul trouble. Pittsburgh also has to have a rebounding advantage to eliminate second chance points.

(4) Xavier Musketeers:

Their Tournament so far: The Musketeers have two double digit wins in the first two rounds. They cruised past 13th seed Portland State 77-59 in the first round. Xavier had four players in double digits led by senior guard C.J. Anderson with 14. In the second round game (12) Wisconsin led at half but the Musketeers pulled away with a 35 point second half to a 60-49 victory.

Hot hand: Senior guard B.J. Raymond leads Xavier with 28 points between the two games. Raymond is the team's most consistent shooter and can score from anywhere on the court. Junior forward Derrick Brown also has a pair of double digit point efforts and is the team's best rebounder.

How they match-up with Pittsburgh: Xavier has the size to match-up with Pittsburgh and the athleticism but the question remains if they have the strength. The Musketeers big men will have to contain Blair and Young inside and fight for rebounds. One big advantage is their depth especially on the front court. If they can get some early fouls on Young or Blair they should be able to get a rebounding advantage. Both Anderson and Raymond can play a little forward and have the quickness to guard Young.

X-Factor: Dominate the boards. Xavier is a good rebounding team but will need to be a great one to beat Pittsburgh at their own game. The Panthers are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, especially on offense. They give their team multiple second chance shots throughout the game. The Musketeers will need to eliminate the Panthers advantage underneath and get their own second chance opportunities if they hope to win.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Sweet 16 Preview: (1) Conneiticut vs. (5) Purdue

(1) Connecticut Huskies:

Their Tournament so far: The Huskies dominated the first two rounds of the tournament winning by a combined 82 points. In their first game against the 16th seed Chattanooga Mocs, Connecticut had five players in double figures, including three with 20 or more points. The Huskies grabbed 24 more rebounds than the Mocs and committed 10 less turnovers. In the 2nd round game against the 9th seed Texas A&M Aggies the Huskies were just as dominate. Led by senior point guard A.J. Price, who had 27 points, Connecticut had four players manage double digit point totals against the Aggies. The Huskies shot 58% from the field and out rebounded A&M by 14.

Hot hand: Price and senior forward Jeff Adrien have been the stars for Connecticut so far. Price has 47 points and 11 assists through two games and is shooting 50% behind the 3-point line. Adrien has been in double figures in both games and has 24 total rebounds.

How they match-up with Purdue: The Huskies will need junior center Hasheem Thabeet to get hot after he disappeared in the A&M game. Thabeet along with Adrien and junior forward Stanley Robinson on the inside Connecticut should be able to contain Purdue's big men. Price along with fellow guards Craig Austrie and Kemba Walker give Connecticut a big advantage on the perimeter. Connecticut's quickness should give the Boilermakers back-court fits all game.

X-Factor: Connecticut's presence inside. Thabeet needs to step up and control the boards like he has all season. Purdue is a balanced team but they rely on the 3-pointer, for the Huskies to win the need to they need to eliminate second chances by their opponent. Going inside on offense to Thabeet and Adrien could get Purdue in foul trouble and force them to go to their bench.

(5) Purdue Boilermakers:

Their Tournament so far: The Boilermakers squeaked by in their first two rounds with a five point victory over the 12th seed Northern Iowa Panthers and a two point upset over the 4th seed Washington Huskies. Despite leading both games the whole way the Boilermakers had to rely on clutch free throw shooting at the end of the game to advance to the next round.

Hot Hand: Sophomore forward JaJuan Johnson is leading the Boilermakers with 36 points between two games. Eleven of his 36 points and three block shots came in the second half of the Washington game that sent the Boilermakers to the Sweet 16. Sophomore guard E'Twaun Moore has added 31 points for Purdue and has gone 13-15 from the free throw line.

How they match-up against Connecticut: Purdue is a balanced team that has both inside and outside scoring options. Also they have a solid eight man rotation that gives them solid minutes. Unfortunately they can't match Connecticut's experience and star player advantage. Purdue's top three scorers are all sophomore's and will all be matched up against juniors and seniors. While they have some size they don't rebound well and will have to improve if they hope to knock off the Huskies.

X-Factor: Robbie Hummel breaking out of his slump. Sophomore forward Robbie Hummel was 3rd on the team in scoring during the season, averaging over 12 points a game but has yet to get into double figures in the tournament. In the second game against Washington Hummel ended up as the team's 6th best scorer. He was the Purdue's best 3-point option during the season but has only hit one three over the last two games. For the Boilermakers to make it to the Elite Eight Hummel will have to get hot. He has the athleticism to give Connecticut forwards Adrien and Robinson problems chasing him out on the perimeter.

Monday, March 23, 2009

Weekend Wrap-up: NCAA Tournament

Well the Sweet 16 is all set and 2009 is not the year for the underdogs. Only one team (5th seed Purdue) beat a higher seed in the second round to advance to the Sweet 16. Also for the first time in the Tournament's history the top three seeds from each region made the 3rd round. Joining those 12 teams are two number 4 seed's, Gonzaga and Xavier, number 5 seed Purdue and number 12 seed Arizona.

Arizona went from being one of the bubble teams when this tournament started, one of the quarter of teams that still remain. The Wildcats lucked out a bit in their in their seeding. They faced an overrated Utah team in the first round, which could not match up with Arizona's shooting ability. Then lucked out when 13th seed Cleveland State upset 4th seed Wake Forrest in the first round, making the Wildcats the favorite to advance to the Sweet 16.

Purdue was the only 5th seed to survive the dreaded 5-12 upset by outlasting Northern Iowa 61-56. Purdue managed to hang-on in the second round and upset 4th seed Washington with a two point victory. Memphis and Pittsburgh survived close calls in the first round when they both came out of the locker room cold. Louisville, UNC and Pittsburgh all had tight 2nd round games but still showed that they were top quality teams. Michigan State and Duke each squeaked by their 2nd round games with 5 point victories. Of the number 1 and 2 seeds only Connecticut and Oklahoma put up back-to-back dominate games. Gonzaga had the play of the tournament to win their second game against Western Kentucky, by going to coast to coast for a lay-up with only 7 seconds on the clock.

While some people may be down on this tournament because it doesn't have the traditional underdog story that we've come to love during March Madness, it may turn out to be one of the better tournaments down the stretch. With so many top teams still in this tournament no one has an easy road to Detroit. There are no gimme match-ups here and we will likely see some 1's and 2's start to fall. These final 15 games to decide a national champion will prove who is the toughest, deepest and most talented team in the country.

Check back through-out the week as I preview each Sweet 16 match-up.

Friday, March 20, 2009

March Madness Midwest Region Part 2

No. 2 seed Michigan State Spartans:

Why they will win it all: Michigan State is probably the deepest team in the tournament, they had 10 players who averaged at least nine minutes a game. Their offense is led by sophomore guard Kalin Lucas and junior forward Raymar Morgan. Each averaged over 10 points a game and compliment one another with Lucas offering the outside shot and Morgan being a force inside. Morgan is supported inside by senior center Goran Suton. Suton doesn't excel at any one aspect but is solid across the board. He's even become somewhat of an outside shooter adding another threat to the Michigan State offense.

Why they won't win it all: Michigan State lacks a star presence to take over a game or that could take that game winning shot. They have a lot of solid to good players but don't have that one great player. Despite having decent size they weren't a good rebounding team this season and will only struggle when facing more athletic competition from other conferences. They are an average shooting team hitting only 45.5% of their shots and less than 36% of their 3-pointers. They struggled from the free throw line making just 68% of their attempts.

Player to watch: Kalin Lucas. Lucas is the one player who can be the dynamic scorer the Spartans need. He's a solid 3-point threat and was the Spartans second best free throw shooter, hitting 80% of his shots from the line. Lucas is also a good passer and helps set up the offense for his inside men.

Prediction: Michigan State should be able to make it through the first two rounds with relative ease but aren't a safe bet to advance past the Sweet 16. A potential match-up with West Virginia doesn't favor the Spartans. Michigan State lacks the size and big play ability to compete with the Mountaineers.

Other teams to watch: The 6th seed West Virginia Mountaineers can be a dangerous team in this bracket. They have three offensive stars in senior guard Alex Ruoff, junior forward De'Sean Butler and freshman forward Devin Ebanks. Ebanks had a strong Big East Tournament and has been getting better all year. The Mountaineers are quick and athletic and have a very heady leader in Ruoff. Ruoff is a smart veteran player who can be deadly from the 3-point line. The 4 seed Wake Forest Demon Deacons are another team that bears watching in this tournament. They match up well with the Louisville Cardinals and could be the team that knocks them off. The Deacons are led by a pair of sophomores, guard Jeff Teague and forward James Johnson. Teague is one of the best shooters in the nation and plays great defense.

March Madness Midwest Region Part 1

No. 1 seed Louisville Cardinals

Why they will win it all: The Cardinals enter the tournament as the number 1 overall seed after winning the Big East Tournament and regular season title. They are led by their three forwards senior Terrence Williams, junior Earl Clark and freshman Samardo Samuels. Clark and Williams are among the best players in the Big East. Both are very athletic two-way players that can take over a game. Clark is especially frustrating for opposing teams to guard given his size and strength. Though built like a forward Clark is as quick as a guard and blows by opposing forwards on the way to the basket. They have a very talented eight man rotation that give them quality minutes. All eight of their players are a threat to score. Louisville is one of the more balanced teams in the league with depth at both guard and forward.

Why they won't win it all: Louisville played well against their Big East competition beating Villanova, Syracuse and West Virginia twice and Marquette and Pittsburgh once apiece. They struggled though against teams they should have beaten losing to Notre Dame, UNLV, Western Kentucky and Minnesota. The Cardinals are also not a great shooting team hitting just 45.1% from the field. Louisville is one of the worse free throw shooting teams in this tournament, hitting just 64% from the line. While Louisville is a good defensive team they don't always rebound well despite having the size and athletic ability.

Player to watch: Terrence Williams. Williams is a great all around player, he can score from the perimeter or inside, an excellent rebounder and defender, and he leads the team in assists. He is an unselfish player who consistently finds the open shooter. He is so athletic and strong that he can guard players of any size with ease.

Prediction: Louisville should make it out of the Midwest region and in to the Final Four with some ease. They will likely face a strong challenge from Wake Forrest in the Sweet Sixteen but have the athleticism to match-up with them. Look for Kansas and Michigan State to get knocked out early leaving, leaving the Cardinals to face a West Virginia team they've already beaten twice.

1st round upset: 14th seed North Dakota State over 3rd Kansas:
This isn't the same Jayhawks team that won the National Championship a year ago. They are young and untested and they don't play great defense. If Kansas can't defend the perimeter they will have a long day as the Bison are one of the top 5 3-point shooting teams in the nation, hitting over 41% of their shots. North Dakota State is a very veteran team and seniors Ben Woodside and Brett Winkelman both are excellent shooters and can score at will.

Thursday, March 19, 2009

March Madness: East Region Part 2

No. 2 seed Duke Blue Devils:

Why they will win it all: The Blue Devils won the ACC tournament and were a top team all year. They have three players that can score any time they touch the ball, in sophomore forward Kyle Singler, junior guard Gerald Henderson and junior guard Jon Scheyer. All three players are shooting at least 36% from behind the arc. All three players averaged at least 15 points per game as well. While not a great defensive team they play very fundamental basketball and force a number of turnovers. Henderson is an athletic guard who can shoot the jump shot or go to the basket with equal skill. He has created problems all season for teams trying to guard him one-on-one.

Why they won't win it all: Duke is not a physical team they lack a true inside presence and are frequently out rebounded. They rely on the open 3 point shots and struggle when they are forced to score inside. The Blue Devils lack a true point guard to set up their shooters on perimeter and will struggle against teams with top guards. They lack the overall athleticism and physicality to play with a number of teams in the nation. While they have three good shooters they were a very poor shooting team overall averaging under 45% from the field. They are also not a very deep team and will struggle if any of their players get into foul trouble.

Player to watch: Gerald Henderson. Henderson is the one player on Duke's roster who presents a match-up problem for any team the Blue Devils play. He averaged 16.6 points per game this season and led the Blue Devils by shooting 47% from the field. He is a good defender and his quickness and streghth allow him to man up on just about anyone.

Prediction: The Blue Devils are vastly outgunned in this region and I believe will be upset in the second round by Texas. The Longhorns played below their talent level all year, but have the size and quickness that Duke can't compete with. If the Blue Devils manage to get by Texas they will have to face major obsectals in Villanova and Pittsburgh if they hope to make it to the Final Four.

Other teams to watch: The 3rd seed Villanova Wildcats are one of the best teams nobody is talking about. They got beat up some in Big East play this year but are a dangerous team. They won their only meeting against Pittsburgh and lost their regular season games to Louisville and Conneticut by a combined 7 points. Junior guard Scottie Reynolds and senior forward Dante Cunningham each averaged over 15 points per game this year. The 7th seed Texas Longhorns can be another dangerous team. They are led senior guard A.J. Abrams and junior forward Damion James. Each player has the ablity to take over a game and will present major match-up problems for any team they face. They have the talent they just need to harness it.

March Madness: East Region Part 1

No. 1 seed Pittsburgh Panthers:

Why they will win it all: The Panthers are a veteran team with three senior starters and one of the best big men in the country in sophomore center Dejuan Blair. Pittsburgh has three primary offensive weapons in Blair, senior guard Levance Fields and senior forward Sam Young. Fields is the floor general and one of the better passers in college basketball. He averages almost eight assists per game to go along with his 10.7 points per game. Blair averages a double double with 15.7 points per game and 12.2 rebounds. He was named Co-Big East Player of the year with Connecticut's Hasheem Thabeet. The Panthers are among the top teams in shooting percentage in the nation and can score both inside and outside. Pittsburgh is a very athletic team and plays a solid defensive game that relies on them forcing bad shots.

Why they won't win it all: The Panthers are not without their flaws though and they struggle in a couple of areas. Though Pittsburgh has a number of players who can hit the 3-ball they lack a consistent presence on the perimeter. As evidenced by their quarter-final loss to West Virginia in the Big East tournament, when they went 0 for 8 behind the arc. Another area of concern for the Panthers is their inability to shoot free throws. The Panthers shot just 67% from the charity stripe this season well below average. The last major area of concern for Pittsburgh is foul trouble. If either Blair or Young get in foul trouble the Panthers lack the front court depth to make up for their absence.

Player to watch: Sam Young. Most people would put Blair here but Sam Young is the best player on this team. Young can score from anywhere on the court and plays great defense. He led the Panthers in scoring each of the past two years. He is a very cerebral player who often out plays bigger and stronger opponents due to his advanced understanding of the game. Young has the skill and athleticism to present match-up problems against just about any player in the nation.

Prediction: Pittsburgh should be the East region's representative in the Final Four. While its a strong bracket top to bottom the Panthers match up well against every team. The biggest scare may come from Villinova who beat the Panthers in their only match-up during the season.

1st round upset: 9th seed Tennessee over 8th seed Oklahoma St.:
While not that big of an upset prediction the Volunteers should be able to get by the Cowboys with strong play from their junior forwards Tyler Smith and Wayne Chism.

March Madness: West Region Part 2

No. 2 seed Memphis Tigers:

Why they will win it all: The Tigers are a much different team from the one that lost in the finals to Kansas a year ago. But that's not necessarily a bad thing. They are a more balanced team with four players averaging at least 10 points a game. Memphis also has a deep bench with a total of 9 players that average at least 12 minutes per game. The Tigers are led by freshman point guard Tyreke Evans and senior forward Robert Dozier. Evans led the team in scoring averaging over 16 points a game and is a quality defender. Dozier is their best inside scorer averaging 12.2 points per game. Memphis is a very athletic team that likes to force turnovers and get the fast break.

Why they won't win it all: Memphis is a hard to team to project because of the weakness of their conference. They ran away with the Conferance USA regular season and postseason title but didn't face any tough competition. Tennessee and Gonzaga were the only tournament teams they faced that they beat. Memphis can also be very inconsistent. Dozier is one of their best players but he disappears in far too many games. The Tigers lack a true perimeter threat and their overall shooting percentage is under 45%.

Player to watch: Tyreke Evans. Evans has quietly filled Derrick Rose's shoes as the teams star point guard. Evans isn't as complete a player as Rose but is still a dangerous scoring threat. He does a little bit of everything for the Tigers. In addition to leading the team in scoring, Evans led the team in steals, was second in assists and third in rebounds and blocked shots. Unfortunately Evans led the team in another category by a wide margin; turnovers. Evans is not a good passer and will try to do too much at times. If he stays focused Evans can be an elite scorer and a shutdown defender.

Prediction: I think Memphis will come out of the West region for a Final Four berth. Their depth and defense should help them overcome challenges from Missouri and Connecticut.

Other teams to watch: The 3rd seed Missouri Tigers could be a strong team in this bracket. They won the Big 12 tournament and could make a run in this tournament as well. Led by senior forwards DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons the Tigers can run with just about anyone. They are an athletic team that plays good defense and matches up well against Memphis and Connecticut. The 4th seed Washington Huskies are a deep team that has four scorers averaging at least 10 points. The Huskies are led by senior forward Jon Brockman who averaged over 14 points and 11 rebounds a game.

March Madness: West Region Part 1

No. 1 seed Connecticut Huskies:

Why they will win it all: The Huskies have a strong starting five led by senior guard A.J. Price and junior center Hasheem Thabeet. Price, Thabeet and senior forward Jeff Adrien all averaged at least 13 points a game. Also Thabeet and Adrien each averaged 10 rebounds a game. The big three are supplemented by freshman guard Kemba Walker and junior forward Stanley Robinson. Senior guard Craig Austrie gets significant time off the bench and can start against smaller opponents. Connecticut is a well rounded team that plays offense and defense with equal tenacity. Thabeet was among the nation's leaders in blocked shots averaging 4.6 per game. Two of their four losses came against fellow number 1 seed Pitt and another came in a dramatic six overtime loss to Syracuse in the Big East quarterfinals.

Why they won't win it all: Connecticut lost starting guard Jerome Dyson in mid-Feburary to an injury and haven't been the same team since. The Huskies are just 4-3 in Dyson's absence and are in the midst of a two game losing streak. Though they have a talented starting five, Connecticut lacks a quality bench. There is not much talent there behind Austrie and no real front court help. Thabeet can be one of the best big men in the country but he has some serious flaws in his game. He doesn't run the floor well and can be beat to the basket by quick athletic teams. Also, while Thabeet is an inside force above the rim, if backed away from the basket and forced into a jump shot Thabeet becomes a very ordinary big man.

Player to watch: A.J. Price. Thabeet may grab all the headlines but Price is the player that Connecticut needs the most out of. Without Dyson in the line-up Price stepped up to lead the team in scoring. Price is the team's best 3-point shooter and is a threat to score anytime he has the ball in his hands. He is a quick guard that can shut down an opposing team's best player. While not a great passer he still manages to set the offense up for the big men in the middle.

Prediction: Connecticut shouldn't have too much trouble advancing to the Elite Eight but will likely find their tournament over if they meet up with Memphis. Missouri is another team that that could give Connecticut trouble if they meet up with them in round of eight.

1st round upset: 10th seed Maryland over 7th seed California:
The Terps sneaked into the tournament with a late season win over UNC and a ACC semi-finals win over Wake Forest. Junior guard Greivis Vasquez is the key, if he's on he can take over a game. If the Golden Bears can't slow him down they will be looking at a first round exit.