Washington Nationals Draft, Was it a Success?

The Washington Nationals had two of the top ten picks (1st and 10th) in this year's MLB draft. A draft that featured pitching phenom Stephen Strasburg. The 1st overall pick they received for their league worst 59-101 record last season. The 10th pick came was a compensation pick for failing to sign their 1st round pick last year (Aaron Crow). It was the first time in baseball history that one team had two top-10 picks. Now the question is, How successful was their draft class?

As a Nationals fan and baseball observer I was disappointed and unimpressed with their draft class. I thought early on the Nationals were prone to over drafting, and selecting signable players. In the top 20 rounds (21 picks) in which usually the teams best players are found, the Nationals drafted a total of 13 collegians, 3 Junior College players and 5 High Schoolers. Of those collegians, 5 were seniors, players without leverage who traditionally sign quickly. This isn't an impressive list with a lot of upside talent. The Nationals early round picks after Strasburg left me scratching my head. Here is a look at some of the problems with those picks

• Drew Storen-1st round (10th overall) RHP, Stanford: Don't get me wrong I like Storen, he's a good player and has a chance to be an excellent closer. Also, its good that you got a player who signed quickly (especially after last year's fiasco with Crow). I just don't think the pick makes sense for the Nationals. Spending an early pick on a closer isn't always the best move. It makes even less sense for the Nationals since they are at least a few years away from contending. Having an All-Star closer on a last place team, is like having a Pro Bowl fullback, on a team without a good running back, it doesn't really help you in the long run. What I'd have done: I would have grabbed either Kyle Gibson, Chad James, or Chad Jenkins. All are college starting pitchers, and none would have been tough signs.
• Jeff Kobernus-2nd round (50st overall) 2b, California: Kobernus would have been a solid 3rd round pick, a good 4th round pick and a great 5th round pick. The problem for the Nationals is they took him in the 2nd round. He does help fill a need at a premium position, but he doesn't profile as a top talent. There were plenty of more talented players still on the board and this just seems like a signability pick here. What I'd have done: If I was looking for a college player, I'd probably take 1b Rich Poythress. From the H.S. ranks pitcher Brooks Pounders or SS Mychal Givens would have been good value picks.
• Trevor Holder-3rd round (81st) RHP, Georgia: Holder is a college senior and is the very definition of a 'signable' player. Baseball America wrote about him and said, "Holder was a 10th round pick last year and should go in the same range this June." A 10th round pick, taken at the top of the 3rd round. What's worse is, that since he's a senior, he has just about no leverage. The Nats could easily have waited 4 or 6 rounds and still gotten Holder. What I'd have done: Chris Dominguez would have been a nice pick, but redundant if I'd already taken Poythress. I'd probably go with either pitchers Ben Tootle, Justin Marks, or Joe Kelly. SS Robbie Shields would be a great pick as well.
• A.J. Morris-4th round (112th) RHP, Kansas State: Morris isn't a real bad pick here, but the Nationals may have been able to wait one more round. Morris is a good player, but there is some concern on his ability to stay healthy. But overall this is a good pick for the Nationals. At the very least he should be a quality arm in the bullpen. What I'd have done: Morris would have likely been my pick here. H.S. catcher Max Stassi or RP Jason Stoffel would have been quality picks as well.
• Miguel Pena-5th round (142nd) LHP, La Joya H.S.: Pena was the Nationals top H.S. draft pick and does have some potential. I think Pena was a solid pick but there were more talented players still on the board. Washington could have gotten Pena or someone like him later in the draft. What I'd have done: SS Ryan Jackson would have been a steal. College arms like Ashur Tolliver or Louis Coleman would have been fine picks for that spot.
• Michael Taylor-6th round (172nd) SS, Westminister Academy H.S.: Taylor seems like a major over draft. He wasn't written up by Baseball America, MLB.com, or Keith Law, which is a bit concerning. If the Nats were high on Taylor, I'm sure they could have gotten him a couple of rounds later. What I'd have done: INF Shaver Hansen or LHP/CF Brooks Raley would have been great picks. H.S. arms like James Needy and Matt Graham would have been great additions to the Nationals farm system.

I think the Nationals dropped the ball here with this draft class. Storen and Morris were good but not great picks. While there may have been better options they are still highly justifiable picks. Players like Kobernus, Holder, Pena and Taylor all seem like signability picks. While i'm not a scout, I think it's a bad decision to draft guys multiple rounds earlier than the industry consensus. Even if all four of these guys become major leaguers its still a bad move, since you could have gotten these 'diamonds in the rough' later in the draft. The Nationals did redeem themselves with a good third day of the draft. Where they selected a number of high upside High Schoolers. It remains to be seen how many will sign, but they were great picks for a system desperate for talent. Overall though I think the Nationals missed an opportunity to be bold and have a top notch draft class. For a team that finished last in 2008, and has the worst record to date this season, that increase in talent is exactly what they needed.

Quick Thoughts on the MLB Draft

I'll do a deeper insight into the draft later, but I wanted to highlight the approach of the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates had the fourth overall pick, and had an additional compensation pick (for not signing a pick last year) before the 2nd round. The Pirates with their top pick, avoided more high profile talents and choose Catcher Tony Sanchez from Boston College. Sanchez is expected to sign for around $2.5 million dollars, which is at less than half of what most players wanted at that spot. The Pirates decided to spend their money throughout the draft and not on a single player.

I think the Pittsburgh Pirates made a bold and brilliant move with this draft. They were widely criticized for their selection of Sanchez, but in the end I think it is a good move. No Sanchez wasn't a top-5, 10 or even 20 talent, but he is a good player. Position prospects were rare in this draft, and while that isn't reason enough to overdraft someone it should be considered. Furthermore, Sanchez is a collegiate player who plays a premium position. His defense is major league ready (which can be hard to teach), and he should be in the majors within 2-3 years. Though he may never be an offensive catcher in the mold of Joe Mauer, if he can just be an average hitter the Pirates got quality value here.

If the Pirates had taken the 'best player available' (BPA), they would have chosen from one of 5 top H.S. pitchers. All of those pitchers have immense talent, but they also have plenty of risk. For one thing, they have plenty of leverage in negotiations, given their college commitments. Because of that they have inflated price tags, anywhere between $5-7 million (Gerritt Cole last year didn't even sign with the Yankees despite the fact they were willing to meet his initial price). On top of that, H.S. players take longer to develop, the Pirates wouldn't see them in the majors for 3-5 years (if they make it at all). Finally, H.S. arms are much harder to project than college arms. H.S. pitchers aren't used as much in a given year, so there can be a greater risk of injury. In my opinion, that is just way to much risk to invest such a large signing bonus. Instead the Pirates will look toward spreading out that bonus money over a number of players. During the 2nd and 3rd days of the draft the Pirates took a number of high upside players, who will command over slot bonuses. While they won't sign all these guys, I'd expect a fair number of them joining Pittsburgh's system.

The Pirates are a rebuilding franchise (have been for nearly 20 years now), and have little help on the way in the minors. This draft class represents a major influx of talent (depending on who they sign). The way I look at it is there weren't any surefire superstars after the top two picks (Strasburg and Ackley), so quantity becomes more important than quality. Time will tell if the Pirates made the right decision but I like the strategy.

MLB Draft Starts Tonight

Tonight, the 2009 MLB Draft gets under way starting at 6 pm, with the Washington Nationals on the clock. The first three rounds of the 50 round draft will be tonight. The remaining 47 rounds will be split up over the next two days. Though the MLB Draft has been growing in acclaim, it still remains behind the more heralded NFL, NBA, and NHL drafts. Since its not as well known, I will give a short summary of what to expect in the draft. I will highlight some of the differences between this draft and other more well known amateur drafts, and give a quick preview of what to expect tonight.

The first major difference in this draft process is the baseball draft is held during the season. The other three major sports hold their amateur drafts after their season, and the order is based on that season's record. Given the way the amateur schedules match up with the MLB's, the baseball draft is held the following June. So this year's draft is based on last year's standings (though for good measure the Nationals still have the worst record). The next major difference is that MLB draft picks can't be traded so you are at your draft spot whether want to pick the best player available or not. Because of this and signability (which we will get to in a minute), a number of players slide in the draft.

The next issue area is signability and the slotting system. Signability is a two-fold issue, one is money and the other is the player's desire to sign right now. In other league's like the NFL and NBA, players must declare their intention to enter the draft process and by doing so they lose their collegiate eligibility. In the NBA and NHL, international players who are drafted that don't sign are still under team control for a set amount of time. In baseball, MLB teams don't have those protections. High School players may choose to go to college no matter how much money is offered to them. College players (who are eligible after their junior season) can go back for their senior year or choose independent baseball rather than signing. The other issue with signability is money. In other major sports the rule is, the higher the draft pick the higher the contract/signing bonus (with a few exceptions). In baseball's draft process, you routinely see players picked in the mid-late first round exceeding the bonuses of the top draft picks. Partly this is due to the MLB's slotting system, which is a recommendation by the league office on what the signing bonus for each player should be. This has led to major issues and fan outrage as teams pass up on more talented players because they want to 'stick with slot'. While there are plenty of cases to be made where a team hurt themselves by 'sticking to the slotting system', its not necessarily a bad thing to do. Every year plenty of players sign for the recommended slot and turn out to be tremendous ballplayers. Matt LaPorta is the perfect example, he was the 7th pick in the 2007 draft and signed just UNDER slot. Already he headlined the deal that brought CC Sabathia (and a playoff appearance) to Milwaukee and is in the big league's with the Indians.

What to Watch For: There is no surprise on who the Washington Nationals will select number 1, as RHP pitcher Stephen Strasburg dominated the college ranks all season. After that things get a bit murky. Its widely considered a good pitching draft, but an extremely weak hitting draft. There could end up being 20 or more pitchers selected in the first round alone. I think we'll see some teams avoid paying out $6-7 million bonuses early. Instead, they will invest that money in signing guys to over slot deals later in the draft. The reason is there doesn't seem to be a lot of sure fire talent in top half of the draft.

Names other than Strasburg that you should know:

-1B/OF Dustin Ackley - he's the top hitter in this draft and will likely go #2

-Zach Wheeler, Jacob Turner, Matt Pruke, Shelby Miller, and Tyler Matzek are the top H.S. arms in this draft and are all Top-15 talents

-Grant Green SS/2B - he's the top college middle infielder but had a bad year this season. He could fall into the middle of the first round.

-Aaron Crow and Tanner Scheppers - RHP's who were drafted last season but choose to play Indy ball in the hopes of increasing their draft value.

-Finally RHP Kyle Gibson - was considered a Top-5 talent but a recent injury has him sliding down draft boards. Some one could get a major steal by taking him late.

Check back later this week when we look at how teams did with their draft picks.

Trade Market: 1B Nick Johnson vs. Aubrey Huff

Today we will take another look at some potential trade targets and figure out who your favorite team should be after. We will take a look at the first baseman market and two of the top names out there, Nick Johnson and Aubrey Huff.

Teams looking for a first baseman: New York Mets (need some help until Delgado can come back), Boston Red Sox (need a DH to replace Big Papi and his .596 OPS), San Francisco Giants (DEAD LAST in home runs), Atlanta Braves (Kotchman only has two home runs this year).

Huff and Johnson are prime candidates to be traded by July 31st. Both are in the last year of the contracts, play for last place teams, and offer quality offensive upside. Right now Johnson is considered the better value on the trade market, but it may be closer to equal then most people think.

Johnson has an age and money advantage over Huff. He's two years younger than him and makes $2.5 million less this season. Johnson also has a defensive advantage over Huff, with a career UZR/150 rating of 4.7, compared to Huff's -5.3 at first base. Also Johnson has been outhitting Huff at this point in the season. Johnson has gotten off to a hot start with a .325/.427/.460 line, while Huff has been inconsistent with a .263/.326/.451 line. To the quick glance it looks as if there is no contest when figuring out who to trade for, but lets dig a little deeper and see how the match-up looks then.

Huff is not with out his advantages as well. Huff has more positional flexibility that Johnson. While he's below average defender overall he can play some third base, and corner outfield. This could be attractive to an N.L. team to give them some roster depth. Also in 2009 Huff's UZR/150 rating is actually the same as Johnson's (-9.1), eliminating some of the consideration that he is a worse defender. Another thing that Huff has going for him is his durability. Johnson missed 2/3 of last season and all of 2007 due to injury. While he's been off the D.L. so far this season, his history knocks him down a few notches. The last advantage for Huff is he's a notoriously slow starter. While that seems illogical to call that an advantage, any team trading for him needs to worry about what he'll do over these last four months of the season, and not the first two. For his career Huff's OPS numbers by month are .730/.742/.844/.836/.942/.820. So while Huff's OPS may be in the .700's now, it should be much higher by season's end.

Even though Huff is due to make an extra $2.5 million on the season, it is really a negligible difference when you think about it. MLB contracts are paid out by month, so Huff makes $1.3 million each month and Johnson $910K. That is not a huge amount of savings, if two teams traded for them on July, 31st, they'd owe Huff $2.6 million and Johnson $1.8 over the final two months of the season. That $800K isn't a big gap when you think about it. Also one advantage that Huff has in regards with his impending free agency compared to Johnson's, is that Huff will be either a Type A/B Free Agent and Johnson won't. The compensation picks that an aquiring team would get for Huff are an added bonus.

When it comes down to it, both Huff and Johnson are quality players. Neither is a complete player, so its hard to say who is really more valuable. It all depends on what your team in looking for in a player. Johnson has the benefit that he's a bit cheaper and is always on base. He will likely be valued more by teams like the Boston Red Sox because he fits their line-up better. Huff on the other hand, has fewer red flags and offers a team more power. A team like the Giants make a lot of sense for Huff, if they want to make a 2nd half run.

Randy Johnson Joins the 300 Club

Yesterday evening I had the privilege to see Randy Johnson reach a milestone, as he recorded his 300 win last night against the Washington Nationals. It was an amazing thing to watch, considering only 23 other players ever had reached that plateau. Despite seeing four pitchers this decade (Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Roger Clemens, and Johnson) reach 300 wins, we won't see another for at least 15 more years. The question is who will it be and how do they get there.

I think Keith Law said it best yesterday with his tweet after the win, "Next up: three days of articles on how Randy Johnson will be the last 300 game winner we ever see. My advice is you ignore them." Law hit the nail on the head, as I've already seen half a dozen talking heads, and articles proclaiming that no one else can reach the 300 win mark. People assume that just because baseball is in an era with more high powered offense's that pitchers can't win 300 games. Maddux, Glavine and Johnson pitched in the National League, while McGwire, Sosa, and Bonds were chasing home run records. Clemens pitched almost his entire career in the A.L. East against the Blue Jays in the early 90's, Orioles in the mid 90's and Yankees late 90's. He also faced the Red Sox this decade in his two stints with the Yankees. He was year in year out facing the best offense's in the game, yet still coming away with victories.

People also assume that pitchers will lose too many opportunities, because more games are finished by the bullpen in today's game. While there's some truth to that, it didn't seem to affect any of these four. Only Johnson completed 8 or more games in a single season since 2000. Clemens completed a total of three games since 2000. It is a complete misconception to think that in 'today's game' a pitcher can't have the career to reach 300 wins. All four of the recent members to the club pitched a good part of their careers in 'today's game'. Also its worth mentioning that Mike Mussina retired this season with 270 wins in 18 seasons. He could have easily reached 300 if he wanted it (Johnson had 263 wins after 18 seasons and Glavine sat at 257), but he chose not to pursue it. That's 5 pitchers who pitched a significant portion of their career's in the last two decades. How can one say that pitchers today can't join the club?

The two biggest factors in reaching 300, are pitching longevity and the team around you. All four of these pitchers pitched at least 20 years in the Majors (Maddux did get his 300th in his 19th season). In addition, all four of these pitchers played on winning teams year in and year out. That's not to say that any of these pitchers wouldn't have been great on any team, but rather having a playoff caliber offense and bullpen do make a difference. Some of today's elite pitchers like Roy Halladay or Jake Peavy lose a few wins each season because they don't play for perennial contenders. Even if those pitchers pitch for 20 or more years, they will have a harder time reaching 300.

Its difficult to say in all likelihood who will be the next member of the club, but CC Sabathia and Zack Greinke are two pitchers I'd look to. Sabathia has 113 wins through just 8 seasons so he's already on a good pace. Now that he's a Yankee, he will have the run the support and Mariano Rivera to help him move up the leader board. Though there is a probability of him breaking down because of his number of innings pitched. He's only 28, so he could have 10-12 good years in him. Greinke is the longest of the long shots, but I think he is a special pitcher. He plays for the Kansas City Royals, so he hasn't had the team support yet. Even with an 8-1 record this season he still is below .500 for his career (42-46), but he has an amazing future ahead of him. I think he will be the most dominating pitcher over the next 12 years. Glavine and Johnson didn't breakout until they were 25 and 29 respectively. Keep an eye on Sabathia, Greinke and others. The 300 club has not seen its last member.

Trade Center: MLB

The Deal: The Pittsburgh Pirates send OF Nate McLouth to the Atlanta Braves for CF Gorkys Hernandez (AA), LHP Jeff Locke (High-A), RHP Charlie Morton (AAA).

Braves: Entering June, the Atlanta Braves ranked in the bottom half of the league in every major hitting category. The main reason for the lack of offense in the Atlanta line-up has been the anemic performances by their outfielders. In over 550 AB's, Atlanta's top FOUR outfielders only managed to hit 10 home runs. Nate McLouth comes to the Braves with nine in 168 AB's. None of the Braves three starters had an OPS north of .700, which is unheard of in today's game. McLouth's OPS stands at .819 and was .853 last season when he was an All-Star. Another area where McLouth can help the Braves out is their running game. McLouth has been a perfect 7 for 7 in SB attempts, and is 64 of 69 for his career. McLouth was attractive to Atlanta because he's only 27 years old and is signed for the next three seasons. The Braves did pay a heavy price for  three and a half years of McLouth. They parted with two of their top ten prospects according to Baseball America (subscription required to read the full scouting reports), in Hernandez and Locke. Atlanta also had to give up 25 year old pitcher Charlie Morton, who has gone 12-4 with an ERA under 2.50 over the past two seasons in AAA.

Pirates: Even though it seems that the Pirates traded away a young budding star for no immediate help to their major league team, I think Pittsburgh made the right move here. On the surface McLouth is a reigning All-Star and Gold Glover, but in reality he isn't too likely to attain those accolades again. McLouth's defense has been grossly overrated. He has a nice arm and decent range but his instincts are lacking. Most advanced defensive metrics rated him as a below average to very poor defensive center fielder. While McLouth is a good offensive center fielder, he's unlikely to enter the All-Star break with the numbers he had last season. McLouth was batting .281 with a .899 OPS and 19 home runs when he played in the midsummer classic. Another reason why McLouth was traded, was the emergence of Pittsburgh's top center field prospect Andrew McCutchen. McCutchen, who was the Pirates 1st round pick in 2005, was pushing for a promotion with his performance in AAA. With him on the way, McLouth would have needed to move to a corner outfield spot. While McLouth could have made the move to the corner, his .819 OPS isn't nearly as impressive at that position. Pretty much every team (except the Braves) has at least one corner outfielder with an .800+ OPS. The Pirates did a good job of selling high on McLouth. They got three quality young players in return. Hernandez has a bright future in CF and may one day push McCutchen to a corner spot. Locke has had some minor league struggles but at 21 years old has a bright future. Morton is a great third piece in this deal. He doesn't have the immense upside of the previous two, but he's major league ready. Morton at the very least could be a quality late inning bullpen arm, but will likely end up as a back of the rotation starter.

Winner: Braves are the immediate winner, but I think the Pirates get the long term benefit here. They traded a redundant player at the peak of his value for quantity and quality prospects. Its hard to argue with that. In addition the money that they save will go towards filling holes at positions of need, and acquiring more amateur talent. 

Penguins Make it a Series

Gary Bettman and the NBC director of Sports Programming breathed a big sigh of relief (not to mention millions of Penguin fans) last night when the Pens won 4-2. Pittsburgh's victory gives them new life in a series that they still trail 2-1. Had the Pens lost, the NHL and NBC would have been hurting. 

The NHL desperately needs this series to get interesting since both of the Conference Finals lacked drama. When the playoffs began you saw some great match-ups and upsets. Anahiem knocking off Dallas, Carolina doing the same to the Devils and Bruins, were great for the fans interest. The Anaheim vs Detroit series, which was a match-up of the last two Stanley Cup winners added plenty of drama. Then Pittsburgh's seven game series against Washington, which featured the match-up of Crosby vs Ovechkin, showcased the NHL at its best. Had the Red Wings repeated as Stanley Cup champs, behind a snoozer of a series, all the hype these playoffs had generated would have been forgotten. NBC also needed the Pens to win, because they don't have broadcast rights again until Game 5 on Saturday. Had the Red Wings won, they may not have had a game to show. 

The NHL is still rebuilding their fan base after the messy lockout a couple of seasons ago. So as much drama, and as many games as possible, are positives for the league and ratings (though they are nerve wracking for Detroit fans). I think the good news for the NHL is that the Pens can make this a great series. After last night it wouldn't surprise me at all to see it extended to seven games. Last night Pittsburgh showed that they can play with the Red Wings, and that they aren't intimidated. If the Pens can stay disciplined and play their game they can take this series down to the wire (a little luck going their way wouldn't hurt either). 

Trade Market: Luke Scott vs. Brad Hawpe

With June upon us the MLB Hot Stove is beginning to heat up. I'm going to take a look at some of the names that will be on the market, and compare them. Today we are going to take a look at a pair of outfielders who are widely rumored to be on the trading block, Luke Scott and Brad Hawpe. 

Teams looking for an outfielder: Braves and Giants (there are a few more but these two teams have a serious lack of production from their outfielders).

You know whats amazing? When you look on message boards and blogs, there is so much hype for Hawpe. But when you bring Luke Scott's name into the conversation, Braves and Giants fans don't want him. They are perfectly content to trade away solid prospects for Hawpe, but don't want to give up anything of value for Scott. WHY? That is a very good question, because when you break it down Scott is the better option than Hawpe.

Take a look at the numbers and you can make the case that Scott is easily more valuable than Hawpe. Age is negligible, as Scott is only one year older than Hawpe. The contract situation is distinctly in Scott's favor as well. Hawpe is making $5.5 million this year, $7.5 million next year and has a $10 million club option for 2011. But he can void the option and become a FA if he is traded. Scott is making $2.4 million this year and as a Super Two player is under team control for another 3 seasons.

Fielding is also in Scott's favor by a large margin. Now I know most people will think that since Scott is a DH he can't field. But that is pretty far from the truth. He has posted a positive UZR/150 rating (which is one of the best defensive indicators) every season (yes it is negative this year but he's only played in the field a few times). His career number is at 7.8 for left field, and 4.8 overall. Hawpe on the other hand has been truly awful in the outfield. He has been in the negative column for every year with the exception of 2006. He has a career rating of -20.8. That's a 25.5 swing between the two outfielder, that is insane.

On offense it is widely considered that Hawpe is the bigger threat, but that is not entirely true either. Hawpe's career numbers sit at .287/.378/.502, while Scott has a career line of .272/.358/.512. A .009 difference in OPS is not a significant factor. What's even more surprising is that Scott out hits Hawpe vs. LHP .817-.762, despite usually being considered a platoon player. Both players are off to hot starts this year, but Scott has done his damage in seven less games than Hawpe.

I think Braves and Giants fans should take a real long hard look at Scott, because to me he seems like the perfect fit for their respective outfields. Scott is the more complete, cheaper and more controllable player. If your team needed a power bat in the outfield who would you rather trade for?

** Contract information is from Cot's Baseball Contracts 

Pens Face Early 0-2 Hole, Can They Come Back?

The Detroit Red Wings have taken full advantage of their home ice in the first two games of the Stanley Cup Finals. Behind a pair of 3-1 victories, the Red Wings now hold a commanding 2-0 series lead as the Finals moves to Pittsburgh. The Penguins have already overcome one 2-0 deficit against the Washington Capitals in the Conference Semi-Finals. The question now is, can they do it again?

Most people at this point will tell you that the Pens don't have a chance. Their argument would be that the Red Wings beat the Penguins last year and that Detroit is more talented than Pittsburgh. Those are two perfectly valid statements on paper but that shouldn't mean Pittsburgh fans are without hope. This is a much different Penguins team than the one that lost to the Red Wings last year in the Finals. They brought in veteran players to supplement their young nucleus.  Also Pittsburgh's young stars like Crosby, Malkin and Fluery all gained valuable experience with last year's run. As for the overall talent level, the Penguins match up pretty well with the Red Wings. While Detroit has there share of all-stars, no one is really on the same level as Crosby and Malkin with Datsyuk out. The Wings are the deeper team, and that so far has been the difference. 

Detroit's defense has kept the Penguins stars in check. For the Pens to come back in this series, they need to find some holes in the Red Wings defense. I think if they can get some good looks on goal they can beat Detroit's goalie Chris Osgood. Osgood is still a solid goalie, but he's not the All-star he once was. I feel that Pittsburgh can take advantage of him, but they need to find an answer to get past the defense. I just don't see Detroit shutting down Crosby and Malkin for an entire series. While you have to say the Wings are the favorite to win the Stanley Cup, I don't think we should dismiss the Penguins so easily. 

Lakers Pull Ahead. Now Up 3-2

Last night's Game 5 match-up in the Western Conference Finals was a critical game for both teams. If the Nuggets stole one in L.A., then they could wrap the series up on their home court in Game 6. The Lakers needed to avenge their 19 point loss in Game 4 and retake the momentum of the series. Los Angeles overcame the Nuggets with a big 4th quarter to win 103-94. 

The Lakers performance in the final frame was the difference, because heading into the 4th quarter, the Nuggets and Lakers were tied 76-76. The teams were so evenly matched, that they each put up the same number of points in the first and second quarters as well. This game shouldn't be too surprising as this entire series has been crazy. In five games Denver has trailed only twice entering the 4th quarter. Each of those times the Nuggets were just down a single point. Despite having a good opportunity to win entering the 4th quarter of each game, the Nuggets remain down 3-2 in the series. Overall Denver has outscored the Lakers 520-515, but in the 4th quarter the Lakers are up 147-132. The Lakers have scored almost 29% of their points in that deciding quarter. With the exception of Game 4, Denver has not been able to put the Lakers away when they have them on the ropes. In Games 1 and 3 the Nuggets were in a prime position to win the game in the 4th, but couldn't put the nail in the coffin. If Denver is going to come back and win this series they will need to elevate their play in the 4th quarter to match the Lakers. This one should be decided in seven games but the way this series is going I wouldn't be surprised to see the Lakers win out in Denver.

Big Night in the NBA and NHL Playoffs

Last night we saw two defining games in the NBA and NHL Playoffs. The first was expected, as the Pittsburgh Penguins swept the Carolina Hurricanes to advance to the Stanley Cup Finals. The second was a big surprise, as the top ranked Cleveland Cavaliers lost in overtime to the Orlando Magic. These two games have defined the Eastern Conferences in each of these sports. 

The Pens cruised past the surging Hurricanes in the Conference Finals and look poised to give the Detroit Red Wings a tough rematch in the Stanley Cup Finals. Going in to the series with the Hurricanes it looked as though it would be a battle. The Pens were just coming off a 7 game slug fest with the Washington Capitals and the Canes had just knocked off the top seeded Boston Bruins. Pittsburgh ran away with the series behind their two stars Crosby and Malkin on the offensive side and Fluery between the pipes. Though the series lacked the excitement and hype of their previous round against the Capitals, the Pens needed this series to prove that they were an elite team. 

As for the NBA Eastern Conference Finals, last night the Orlando Magic proved that they are for real and moved into firm control of this series. The Magic outlasted a late 4th quarter surge to tie the game and a potential game winning shot by LeBron James, to go up 3-1 in the series. While the Cavs have been in three of the four games, the Magic have really set the tone. Dwight Howard has really dominated this series and posted a double double last night. Howard took control in overtime and put the Cavs on the ropes. Even with James, the Cavs really don't seem to have much of a chance to comeback in this series. Right now the Cleveland doesn't have an answer for Howard and hasn't had a consistent second option to go along with James. Balance has been the key for Orlando. They've had two players score 20 or more points and five players in double figures in every game. On defense Orlando has looked to only contain James and not try to shut him down, which has allowed them to shut down the rest of the Cavs. I think Cleveland may win the next game to force a game 6 but I don't think it will go any further than that.

Nuggets Even the Series

The Denver Nuggets were looking at a bleak future heading into last night's Game 4 match-up with the L.A. Lakers. Their star player, Carmelo Anthony, was visibly sick and banged up. They were committing stupid penalties and turnovers that had kept the Lakers in the series. Finally, Denver blew an eight point lead going into the 4th quarter of Game 3, to lose 103-97. It looked as though the Nuggets were finished and the Lakers would be heading back to Los Angeles up 3-1. Denver responded to their naysayers by dominating the Lakers and winning 120-101.

The Nuggets were in control of that game from start to finish, but put up an impressive 43 points (or two less than the Lakers had the entire first half) in the fourth quarter to ensure they didn't collapse like they did in Game 3. The win was even more impressive due to the fact that Anthony had his worst game of the series. The Denver star contributed just 15 points on 3-16 shooting (though he went 9-11 from the line) and added only three rebounds, as he battled a twisted ankle and a stomach virus. Anthony's struggles didn't affect the outcome of the game, as six other Nuggets scored in double figures. Denver was led by guards Chauncey Billups and J.R. Smith, who each had 24 points. Smith had been Denver's most effective scorer off the bench during the regular season and the first two rounds. In the first three games the Lakers had kept him in check, holding him to a combined 21 points.  Last night the Lakers couldn't stop Smith, as he scored 12 points in the 4th quarter. Smith hit three big 3-pointers in the last 5 minutes to put the game out of reach for the Lakers. In addition to out shooting the Lakers the Nuggets controlled the tempo of the game with their success on the boards. Denver out-rebounded L.A. 58-40 overall and 20-9 on the offensive glass. Their second chance points were a deciding factor in last night's game. 

Denver now head's back to L.A. with the series tied 2-2. Not many people give them much of a chance to upset the Lakers, but i think it's a very real possibility. Denver has been in every game down to the last minute. In fact, they've led most of the way in every game. The Lakers can't make either claim, as they were blown out in the 4th quarter and have usually entered the last frame playing catch-up. The Nuggets are also getting a better performance out of their bench and their other starters. The Lakers are still too reliant on Kobe Bryant and haven't featured Gasol, Bynum and Odom nearly enough. Last night Odom only managed five points in almost 30 minutes. Until the Lakers can show they are more than a one trick pony I don't see how they overcome the Nuggets. 

LeBron's Last Second Heroics Even the Series

Before it started LeBron James had called Game 2 of the Conference Finals a "must win" for the Cavaliers. With time expiring James made sure Cleveland 'did win', with his game winning 3-pointer. This was an important game for the Cavs, going into Orlando down 0-2 would have pretty much made this series over. Early on it looked like Cleveland was going to run away with the game. They were up by 20 points in the second quarter and led by 12 at halftime. With LeBron James on the floor and the home crowd in the stands, that lead should have equaled a win. But the Magic battled back and tied the game in the fourth. Then in the final seconds forward Hedo Turkoglu hit a jumper to give the Magic the two point advantage with just one second remaining on the clock. That didn't matter to James as he took the inbound pass and drained the game winner from the top of the arc.

Despite tying the series, there is plenty of concern for the Cavaliers. In both games now Cleveland has come out hot and dominated early. They entered halftime in each game with a double digit lead, only to watch it slip away in the 2nd half. If not for LeBron's final shot the Cavs would have blown their home court advantage in series. Cleveland has to find a way to transition their success in the 1st half, into a victory at the end of the game.  Overall I still like the Cavs in the series. The Magic haven't shown they can slow down James, while Cleveland limited Dwight Howard to 10 points in Game 2. Also, the Cavaliers bench hasn't been much of a factor yet in this series. I think the Cavs will still come out on top, but the Magic aren't gonna go away without a fight.

Bad Day in the Windy City

May 21st, 2009 is probably a day that the Chicago White Sox and their fans wish they could have back. Initially the day started out promising, with news coming out of San Diego that the Sox were in negotiations to acquire 2007 Cy Young winner Jake Peavy. The day looked even brighter when details of the trade started coming to light. The White Sox would hang on to their top prospect, SS Gordon Beckham, and center the deal around Aaron Poreda. Poreda, Chicago's 2007 1st round pick, is no slouch of a prospect, but he doesn't really profile as a star either. Any deal that centered around him and fellow pitching prospect Clayton Richard seemed like a win for the White Sox. The day began to take a turn as the White Sox started their afternoon game against the Minnesota Twins.

Chicago took the first two games of the series but couldn't complete the sweep. Instead the Twins embarrassed the White Sox with a 20-1 shellacking. It was by far the White Sox worse loss of the season, and it was the most runs the Sox had given up in almost two years. The Twins chased Chicago's starter Bartolo Colon after two innings. The news got worse for Chicago's starting rotation later in the afternoon. As their potential savior Jake Peavy exercised the no trade clause in his contract, and declined the move to Chicago. 

After today the White Sox are now 6.5 games out of first place in the A.L. Central, and still without their ace. They rank 24th in the league in ERA, and need to add some pitching if they are to contend in the Central. Now Chicago will have to go back to the drawing board to find a deal to add a starter. If the White Sox don't start improving soon they may become sellers rather than buyers at this year's trade deadline.

*Major credit goes to MLB Trade Rumors for their coverage of this potential deal from start to finish.

Magic Upset the Cavs to take Game 1

The Orlando Magic went into Cleveland last night and knocked off the Cavaliers 107-106, with a Rashard Lewis 3-pointer with 15 seconds remaining. The Magic were down by 15 at halftime, but battled back to be within four points by the start of the 4th quarter. Orlando overcame their deficit by just out shooting the Cavaliers. Both teams had 43 field goals and 12 free throws, but the Magic had nine 3-pointers to the Cavs eight and that was the difference in the game. Orlando was more efficient with their shooting. Going 55.1-48.9% from the field and 85.7-70.6% from the line. The Cavs had 10 extra shot attempts from the field (including two in the final 15 seconds) and three extra free throws, had they made any one of their FG's or two FT's they would have won the game. The Magic came in and took a crucial game one, and now have put pressure on the Cavaliers.

The Cavs shouldn't be too worried about their performance last night. They dominated the Magic in the first half of the game. It looked as if the Cavs picked up where they had left off in their first two playoff series. Then in the second half Cleveland just came out flat and had a bad third quarter. The Cavs should still be considered the favorite to win this series, one misstep shouldn't be cause for concern. Cleveland is coming off an eight day layoff between series so there was bound to be a little rust last night. Overall the Cavs are the best team and have the best player, and that should win out in the end. 

Playoff Predictions

NHL:

Detroit Redwings vs. Chicago Blackhawks: 

Redwings in 5 games. The Blackhawks are a nice young exciting team but they can't match-up against the Redwings for an entire series. Detroit has too much talent, depth and experience to lose this series. The Redwings are already up 2-0 in this series and should have it wrapped up by next Wednesday when they get back on their home ice. 

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Carolina Hurricanes:

Penguins in 6 games. Carolina has had an amazing postseason run, winning in dramatic fashion two game 7's on the road, but I think their luck has run out. The Penguins are looking to redeem themselves for last season's Stanley Cup loss. They have been pretty good so far this postseason and overcame a 2-0 series deficit to come back to beat the Capitals 4-3. With Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin Pittsburgh will have the two best skaters in the series and that is usually a recipe for victory.

NBA:

L.A. Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets:

Nuggets in 6 games. The Lakers may have taken game one but I think the Nuggets will take the series. The Lakers played sloppy in their 2nd round series against the Houston Rockets. They have an impressive double digit win one night and then get blown out the next. That is not the mark of a true championship caliber team. I think the Nuggets are playing their best basketball right now and over the series that will come through in the end. The Nuggets have better overall depth and talent inside than the Lakers. They are playing too well as a team to be stopped.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic:

Cavaliers in 5 games. There is a lot to like about the Magic going into this series. Orlando had a great series to knock off the defending champion Celtics in 7 games. The Magic have the best big man in the nation in Dwight Howard. Also Orlando won the season match-up against the Cavs 2-1. Unfortunately I don't think any of that will be able to stop LeBron James and the rest of the Cavaliers. James and company have been playing excellent ball so far this postseason, winning all of their games by double digits. James has dominated the postseason so far and is playing flawless basketball. I don't think the Magic have a true answer for LeBron. The Cavs will face their toughest challenge in Orlando, but should still wrap this series up pretty quickly.

MNF Makes a Trade

Big new from ESPN Monday Night Football. Tony Kornheiser steps down from his seat in the broadcast booth and will be replaced by Jon Gruden. Kornheiser will stay with ESPN as part of PTI with Michael Wilbon but will no longer be calling games. 

Personally I like this while I've enjoyed reading Kornheiser's columns over the years and love him on PTI, I never liked him as part of the Monday Night football team. Kornheiser would too often try and add a comedic element to the booth but would come up short. If MNF wanted comedy they should have just stuck with Dennis Miller, he's at least funny. The other issue with Kornheiser is he wouldn't always let the game dictate his comments, which I always found frustrating. A good broadcaster needs to respond to whats going on in the game and not what they want to talk about. Now I don't know Gruden will be an upgrade or not I do think he has the potential and personality to help make MNF more enjoyable.

NBA Playoffs: Lakers Outlast the Rockets

L.A. Lakers over the Houston Rockets: (89-70) The Lakers were widely favored going into the series and many thought they'd win it in no more than 5 games, but Houston forced them to game 7. The Rockets did it without their two star players, Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming. McGrady has been out since February and Ming got injured in Game 3 of the series. Undersized and undermanned the Rockets came up with two big wins in Games 4 and 6 to even the series up. Through the first six games the Rockets had exposed a serious weakness of the Lakers. They showed that if L.A. doesn't play like a team and you force tough shots then the Lakers can fall apart. Too often L.A. relies on Kobe and they live and die with his jump shot. 

Game 7 was a different story though. The Lakers won the game in large part because they had a balanced offense and used their size advantage. Kobe Bryant had an unspectacular game, but Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Trevor Ariza all picked up their game. Kobe was more of a decoy and only hit 33% of his shots, but his threat on the outside allowed the big men to dominate the paint. Gasol led the team in points (21) and rebounds (18) and set the tone for the entire game. He caused all sorts of match-up problems for Houston and controlled the defensive glass. Bynum added 14 points and 6 boards in only 22 minutes. The Rockets were noticeably missing Yao Ming in the middle, as they allowed to many easy shots inside and had no presence on the glass. The Lakers allowed the Rockets only five offensive boards and 33 total all game compared to their 55. The Lakers will now face a tough match-up against the Denver Nuggets. They will have to continue playing like a team, instead of a collection of stars to advance to the NBA Finals for the second straight year.

Quick thoughts on hockey game 7 match-ups

Detroit Red Wings over the Anaheim Ducks (4-3): You have to give major credit for what the Ducks have done this postseason. They knocked off the top seeded San Jose Sharks in the first round in six games. Then came up against the defending champion Red Wings. Despite being significant underdogs the Ducks played the Red Wings tough all series forcing a game 7 match-up. Then in game 7 after going down 2-0 early the Ducks battled back to tie the game 3-3. Unfortunately it wasn't enough, as Detroit's Dan Cleary broke the tie with three minutes remaining to advance the Red Wings to the next round. 

The Red Wings showed why they are the defending Champs in this series. The Wings always find a way to win and did so in this series as well. Down 2-1 in the series with game 4 at Anaheim, time to panic? Not for the Red Wings they go out and win 6-3 on the road. Detroit then comes home and goes 3-2 in the series with a 4-1 victory. The Red Wings were never out of it as all three of their losses were by only one goal. Detroit should be the favorite in the Conference finals against the Chicago Blackhawks.

Carolina Hurricanes over the Boston Bruins (3-2 in OT): The Bruins dominated the Eastern Conference all season. Boston then swept the Montreal Canadians in the first round, but came up against a hot Hurricanes team in the second round. Boston will be back though as they have a lot of young talent entering the prime of their careers. Regardless of the future the Bruins have to be wondering what happened in this series. Five games this series were decided by two or more goals and didn't offer much in the way of suspense. The two games that came down to a single goal had the same result; a 3-2 overtime victory for the Hurricanes. 

The Hurricanes so far this postseason have been playing like a team of destiny. No one gave Carolina much consideration for beating the New Jersey Devils in the first round, much less winning the Eastern Conference, but they are now four wins away from that goal. The Hurricanes will now have to face the defending Eastern Conference champs the Pittsburgh Penguins. If the Penguins can take anything from the Hurricanes first two series, is that you can never count them out. Carolina won their first round by scoring two goals on the road in the final 10 seconds to knock off the Devils in game 7. They then scored in the final two minutes of the first overtime to win a second game 7 on the road. 

Pens beat the Caps in Game 7

No playoff series was more highly anticipated than the Penguins vs. the Capitals and the match-up of the NHL's two best players Sidney Crosby vs. Alexander Ovechkin. Crosby and Ovechkin combined for 27 points in the series. Through the first six games the series lived up to the hype, with four games decided in overtime and each team stealing one win on the road. In game seven though the Pittsburgh Penguins went into Washington and showed why they were in the Stanley Cup Finals last season, trouncing the Caps with a 6-2 win.

The Pens got on the scoreboard early and often in the game scoring five of their six goals in the first two periods. The Pens took advantage of a power play mid-way through the first period to get on the board with a Crosby rebound. Eight seconds later Craig Adams put the Pens up 2-0. As the second period began the Caps were still very much in the game. They had gotten early pressure in the 1st period and could get back in the game with a quick score to start the second period. Two goals were scored in the first three minutes of the second period, unfortunately for the Caps they were both for the Pens. The Capitals had to replace their rookie sensation Goalie Simeon Varlamov, who was a big reason why they had advanced as far as they had in the playoffs, for the veteran Jose Theodore. 

Varlamov only managed to stop 14-18 shots and didn't have the magic he had earlier in the post season. Though the blame shouldn't fall on him too much. The Caps defense, which had been spotty all series, fell apart in game 7. Also in hindsight one might want to question the coaching decision of having Varlamov start in 13 straight playoff games. Normally its not a huge deal for one goalie to play throughout the playoffs, but Varlamov only played in 6 games scattered throughout the regular season. He wasn't helped by the fact that the Caps defenders let the Penguins out shoot Washington all series. Now you had to start Varlamov in games 6 and 7 with the Caps facing elimination, but the Capitals head coach Bruce Boudreau should have considered giving Varlamov a night off. Game 4 would have been the perfect time to rest him, the Caps were up 2-1 in the series and had a home game the next night.  

Overall I think the best team won the series. The Penguins dominated the series in terms of shots and tempo. They were consistently putting pressure on the Capitals, and were only put in the situation of a 7th game due too the stellar performances of Ovechkin and Varlamov. I think the experience of the Penguins was a big difference in this series. They were never out of any game and never showed signs of pressing. Pittsburgh now advances to the Conference Finals to take on the winner of the Boston vs. Carolina. Overall the Capitals should feel good about their playoff performance. They proved that they were among the best teams in the NHL and found their goalie of the future in Varlamov. They will be back and will likely have a chance for a rematch again in the postseason.